The Real Numbers: What Waiting Actually Costs You in NYC

In another post, I told you about the “Free Ribs Tomorrow” deal - how waiting for the perfect moment means you never actually get what you want. Tomorrow is always not today.

To illustrate, I will share a story about “Mike” so you can see how the math plays out.

• Mike has been renting in NYC since 2016, always telling himself he was “saving up for the right place.” You know, being RESPONSIBLE. Waiting until he could afford more.

• His accountant just ran the numbers on what the past 10 years actually looked like.

• When Mike showed me the breakdown, we both just sat there staring at it.

Here’s the thing about waiting:

🏃It feels like you’re running in place. Like you’re making progress by being patient and responsible.

But the treadmill? It’s speeding up.

👉🏻Let me show you what I mean.

Back in 2016, Mike was paying $4,000/month in rent. Seemed reasonable at the time. He figured he’d save up, wait for the right moment, and eventually buy something better.

Here’s what actually happened over those 10 years:

⬆️His rent didn’t stay at $4,000. It increased an average of 4.5% per year. By 2026? He was paying over $6,200/month.

↗️His salary increased too - about 2.5% per year. Which sounds good until you realize…

➡️His rent was going up almost TWICE as fast as his income.

⬇️Every single year, housing ate a bigger chunk of his paycheck. Every single year, he had LESS left over to save - not more.

And that $1 million condo he was eyeing in 2016? By 2026, similar places were going for $1.45 million.

So while Mike was “saving up,” the price of entry went up 45%.

He was slowing down while the treadmill was speeding up.

📊 Now let’s talk about what Mike walked away with after 10 years of renting:

Total rent paid: $604,000

Let’s say Mike was smart. He took that $300K he had saved for a down payment in 2016 and invested it instead. Got a solid 10% annual return (which is GREAT, by the way) and sold his investment.

After 10 years, that investment grew to about $778,000.

Sounds pretty good, right?

⚠️Here’s the problem: he paid capital gains taxes on that $478K “profit.” At a 20% rate, that’s roughly $90K in taxes.

So Mike’s actual net wealth after 10 years (including his original $300k): about $689,000. He paid $604K in rent (money he’ll never see again), and ended up with $689K in investment value.

🏠 Now let’s look at what would have happened if Mike had bought that $1 million condo in 2016 instead.

👉🏻He puts down $300K. Pays about $30K in buyer closing costs. Takes out a $700K mortgage at around 5.5% interest.

👉🏻Total cash out of pocket: $330,000.

👉🏻His monthly payment? About $7,075 (mortgage + common charges + real estate taxes).

Yeah, that’s MORE than the $4,000/month rent he started with. But here’s the difference…

That payment is BUILDING something.

And by the way, many buyers find homes where the monthly payment is comparable to their current rent.

Over 10 years:

☑️He paid down about $122,000 in principal (reducing his loan balance to $578K)

☑️The property appreciated to $1.45 million

☑️His equity: $872,000 (property value minus remaining loan balance)

But wait, there’s more 😁

Remember those mortgage interest payments and real estate taxes? They were partially tax-deductible. Over 10 years, that added up to about $204,000 in tax savings. (I’m not a CPA - so check with your own accountant to find YOUR savings)

So Mike’s wealth position if he’d bought: $872K in equity + $204K in tax savings = about $1,076,000.

If he sold, he’d pay about $145K in closing costs and potentially $5K in capital gains (assuming he’s single and it was his primary residence).

His actual net wealth from this transaction after the sale: about $1,071,000.

💰 Let’s put those two scenarios side by side:

Rented + Invested: $689,000

Bought the Condo: $1,071,000

Difference: $382,000.

That’s what waiting cost Mike over 10 years.

⚠️ Now look, I need to say this clearly:

I’m not a financial advisor or a CPA. These numbers are based on Mike’s specific situation, with guidance from his accountant. Your situation will be different. Real estate values can go up OR down. Interest rates change. Tax laws shift.

You need to talk to your own accountant, financial advisor, and yes - a real estate agent who understands your goals (hi 👋) - before making any decisions.

This isn’t a guarantee that the next 10 years will look like the past 10 years.

But here’s what IS guaranteed:

If you rent, that money is gone forever. You’re paying for someone else’s investment; building someone else’s wealth.

If you buy - even if appreciation isn’t the same moving forward (past performance never guarantees future performance) - at least you’re building SOMETHING.

❓ So when clients ask me, “should I buy?” - here’s what I tell them:

If you have a significant, concrete windfall coming and you know WHEN it’s hitting, factor that into your timeline. A $200K inheritance in six months? Your company going public next year? Sure, wait for that.

But if you’re waiting on “maybe” or “someday” or “when I can afford my dream place in Manhattan”?

Understand what waiting costs.

For Mike, it cost a few hundred thousand dollars.

And here’s the thing: if you can’t afford what you want in the city right now, maybe the answer isn’t “wait until you can.”

Maybe it’s “buy what you CAN afford - even if it’s outside the city - so you can stop running on that treadmill and start building equity.”

Because the treadmill doesn’t slow down.

It speeds up.

The question isn’t “can I afford my dream place?”

The question is: can you afford to keep waiting?

🚨 One final point:

Not everyone should actually buy. Especially in a city like New York City, which is one of the most transient cities in our country. While I personally believe that long-term residency makes a great argument for ownership, I know that 1. Not everyone is sure about where they want to live in the city past 6 months, much less a couple of years and 2. It isn’t always possible for a person to buy in the city (there are investment options that can help you build some equity).

💬 Want to talk about your specific situation?

Let’s look at the actual numbers - not hypotheticals, but YOUR numbers - and figure out what makes sense for you. There have been a number of times when I have given clients the advice to actually wait, when that was the most strategic move. We aren’t interested in pushing our clients into a mold, but rather breaking them out of one.

I’d rather you make an informed decision than spend the next 10 years wondering what could have been.