The October Effect: Spooked Into Standing Still?

October has a reputation for rattling nerves. In investing, the “October Effect” describes the belief that markets are more vulnerable to declines this month, a reputation shaped by historic crashes, rather than a reliable prediction. But the fear can feel familiar well beyond Wall Street.

Election noise gets louder. Tax deadlines loom. The year’s finish line comes into view. Suddenly, every decision feels heavier, and waiting feels responsible. But “let’s wait and see” isn’t automatically a strategy. Sometimes, it’s fear wearing a sensible outfit.

Our smartest clients aren’t letting the season set their agenda. They’re weighing market conditions against their goals and making deliberate moves. October can change the scenery. 

Don’t let it hijack your strategy. Let’s build a plan around where you want to go.

What This Means

The month of September brought, in typical fashion, a return of inventory to the market. The summer months typically bring a cooling of buyer activity, which also shows up in decreased contract signings in September. While we always expect some previously paused listings to return to the market, along with new listings following Labor Day, we have been watching the uptick in activity heading into October.

We are already starting to see an increase in inquiries and showing requests for our own listings, along with improving buyer sentiment despite discussions of higher interest rates. 

U.S. Real Estate Market By The Numbers

Data reflects September 2026

September 2026 existing-home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, while inventory increased to 1.60 million homes for sale. Housing supply steadied at 4.8 months, and the median existing-home sales price reached $417,500, up 1.3% from a year ago.

Only in New York

Lee Krasner was a fearless, trained painter long before anyone knew Jackson Pollock’s name. For years she put her own work aside to build his career, champion his genius, and protect his legacy. The Met’s curator calls it her “unseen labour.” She kept painting through all of it.

Now her name comes first. Krasner and Pollock: Past Continuous hangs their work side by side as equals, and it is long overdue. For every woman who has quietly powered someone else’s rise while building something of her own, this show is a standing ovation.

On view at The Metropolitan Museum of Art through January 31, 2027. Go.