We’ve Been Talking About This Since 2020 — And Now It’s Here.

We've been saying it for the last five years: NYC is running out of new development inventory. Those of us who’ve navigated recessions, pandemics, and shifting markets recognize the signs long before the headlines. This moment isn’t sudden. It’s been building for years.

The numbers tell the story:

3,600 units of unsold new development inventory in Manhattan — a 10-year low.

Only 5 buildings expected to deliver 245 units for the rest of this year. From mid-2025 through year-end, just 1,450 units are projected — nearly a 30% drop from historic averages.

New development sales have already outpaced launches by 60% in 2024

Neighborhood pressure points:

The Upper West Side is on track for only 30 units through 2026

Entry-level inventory under $1,800/SF is set to fall by 60%+ in the next two years.

This is not a soft patch. It’s a market shift.

In moments like this, savvy buyers and strategic investors act early. With fewer projects in the pipeline, the best opportunities will be absorbed quickly, well before the broader market catches up.

What’s ahead isn’t an oversupply. It’s scarcity. And in real estate, scarcity creates value.

If you’ve been waiting for “the right time,” this is it. Let’s connect and identify the smart opportunities before the rest of the market catches up.